出发吧爱情

A |     编者按：以变革应对变局，以远见超越未见。伯虎商业评论、大象新闻、大象财富联合腾讯新闻、腾讯财经推出2024年终策划《变局之下》，回望2024、展望2025，让洞见穿越时间，向未来寻求确定。引言：2025年，黄金价格仍在高位盘旋，根据1月9日最新的伦敦金价行情，现货价2663.24美元/盎司，日内涨幅0.02%。这不由让大伙心里都犯嘀咕：这黄金是吃了啥了，还能这么一直涨下去不？ 把日历翻回2024年，国际金价就是个“破纪录专业户”。从年初到年尾，国际金价震荡上扬，一年之内创下40次新高，年涨幅接近30%。    Hunter Biden and his longtime business partner Eric Schwerin were actively working behind the scenes in 2016 to raise money for a prominent former Biden adviser's congressional campaign while also working on Chinese business deals with the adviser's business partner, Fox News Digital reported on Thursday.,Close connections build business, it seems. According to emails obtained by the outlet, Francis "Fran" Person, who worked in the Obama administration from 2009 to 2014 as a special assistant to President Barack Obama and an adviser to then-Vice President Joe Biden, left the White House in late July 2014 to serve in an advisory capacity at his alma mater, the University of South Carolina. Less than six months later, in January 2015, he reportedly became the president of the Harves Group.,Person still frequently corresponded via email with Hunter and Schwerin of the now-defunct Rosemont Seneca Partners about business dealings connected to the Harves Group in 2015 and 2016, per the report.,He also made numerous trips to the White House during that time, including joining Bo Zhang, the Chinese executive who founded the Harves Group and supposedly had connections to officials at some of the highest levels of the Communist Party of China, at a White House holiday reception in December 2015.,Hunter Biden-Linked Chinese Businessmen Met With Joe Biden at the White House While VP6 August, 03:25 GMT,More to that, Person declared on February 29, 2016, that he would run for the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Rep. Mick Mulvaney of South Carolina.,Then, according to the outlet, one day after the announcement, Hunter introduced George Duko, a DuPont executive, to Zhang in an email, outlining a prospective commercial connection between DuPont and Harves. Person and Zhang's aunt were Bcc'd on the email.,"Their reputation is impeccable, and they have strong local, provincial, and national level government relationships - specifically in Shenzhen - which is essential in getting any major project done," Hunter wrote in that email, per the report.,On March 3, 2016, Schwerin allegedly introduced Person to Jeff Cooper, an associate of his and Hunter's in business. A later email from the individual thanked Schwerin for the introduction and stated that given his own "close relationship with VP Biden," there is "a very high anticipation" that he will be a "well funded candidate.",In October of that year, Cooper would reportedly give Person's campaign $2,700. Meanwhile, Hunter Biden reportedly met with Zhang, the chairman and CEO of Harves, on March 30 of that year.,Sputnik ExplainsHunter Biden Records: Does US Secret Service Have Something to Hide?24 July, 15:15 GMT,Next month, the partners, together with the director of communications of the National Basketball Players Association Tara Greco, discussed the possibility of building stadiums in China under the auspices of the NBA. The talk was allegedly about the province of Liaoning in northern China, where Zhang allegedly had close business and political ties.,To meet with Duko of DuPont, Hunter, Schwerin, and Zhang drove to Wilmington, Delaware, on May 4, 2016. Asked by the outlet whether he remembered Fran Person's name coming up during their discussion in Wilmington and whether Hunter, Schwerin, or Zhang had presented any additional business opportunities to DuPont in China, Duko replied: "I did meet with Hunter at their request, they wanted to discuss land we were in the process of selling at that time.,"The transaction was already under contract to be sold and I informed Hunter that we would be proceeding with the transaction as planned," he added. "We did not and have not discussed any other business dealings since that meeting. I do not recall the name Fran Person.",Meanwhile, Hunter allegedly sought help even from Brian Steel, a CNBC executive from 2007 to 2021. In his reply to Hunter's email asking him if he might contribute to Person's campaign in September 2016, Steel made an interesting revelation, per Fox News.,"I look forward to seeing you on Monday. I’d love to support Fran but unfortunately as the EVP of CNBC, I’m not allowed to donate to political campaigns," Steel wrote. "In year[s] past I would get around that by having my wife donate but after CNBC hosted a controversial/aggressive Republican primary debate earlier this year, Breibart [sic] and Rush Limbaugh outed me as the husband of a ‘max’ Hillary donor so I can’t even have Eileen donate anymore.",Sputnik ExplainsHow Bannon's Conviction Opens Door to GOP's Sweet Revenge on Hunter and Joe Biden23 July, 18:01 GMT,According to an earlier report, Hunter referred to Zhang as a "good friend and business colleague" in a letter to an alleged Chinese Communist Party official Henry Zhao, who was also the CEO of Harvest Fund Management.,Soon after, Hunter began to send invitations to his contacts to fundraisers in support of Person multiple times, sometimes writing, "Most of you know what Fran Person means to me and my family and we are excited to support him in his run for Congress," and at least three of them were allegedly addressed by his father, then the vice president of the United States.,At one of the events, according to the publication, Evan Ryan, the current White House cabinet secretary and the wife of secretary of state Antony Blinken, gave $8,100 to Person's campaign. Numerous family members of President Biden, including his wife Jill, sister Valerie, brother James, brother-in-law Jack, nieces Casey and Missy, and Hunter, contributed significantly to Person's campaign in 2016.,However, despite the Bidens' fundraising efforts, Person did not ultimately win. The Democrat candidate faced no opposition in the primary but lost to Mulvaney on November 8, 2016.,'They Should Come & Talk to Us': Hunter Biden Probe May Subpoena US Intel Chiefs, Says McCarthy7 August, 05:19 GMT。紫金矿业、山东黄金、招金矿业等黄金企业也乘上东风，业绩亮眼，股价也扶摇直上。

B | 狂飙的黄金行情，同样让不少人通过炒黄金享受丰厚的收益。按照惯性思维，黄金暴涨，黄金饰品市场似乎也应该跟上。可现实是，黄金刚需消费者和黄金珠宝企业却在高涨的黄金行情之下，经历最为严峻的寒冬。一方面，高位的金价也让不少消费者直呼“高攀不起”；另一方面，如此火爆的金价行情推动国内金店饰品价格也纷纷突破800元/克，奇怪的是，它们却面临销售困境。有人欢喜，自然也有人忧愁。在黄金投资面前，折射出了一副芸芸众生相。

C | 01 一边疯涨，一边亏惨同样是投资黄金，有的人赚的盆满钵满，有的人甚至不能保本。

D | 伯虎财经了解到，靠着2024年的这波黄金涨势，金店老板李捷（化名）赚了二三十万元。李捷表示，由于职业原因，自己经常会关注金价走势。黄金本身不会像股票一样增殖，但是影响黄金价格的因素有很多，比如美联储的加息周期、国际局势是否动荡等。俄乌冲突爆发后，李捷观察到美联储迟迟看不到降息的动静，觉得金价未来还有上涨空间，于是在2023年决定投资近200万元购买金条，结果大赚一笔。2023年金价持续上涨的趋势让王英（化名）也加入到黄金投资的队伍中来，但她买的不是金条，而是首饰黄金。

E | 黄金貔貅、项链、戒指、金钗，王英喜欢什么就买什么。2024年年中，王英想趁着金价上涨，把自己手中的黄金变现，结果发现回收价远远赶不上买入价。金店销售人员告知她，按照当天的黄金回收价格，她花费三千多块购入的黄金戒指，回收价格才两千不到。不只是黄金饰品的消费者，整个黄金饰品行业正经历着一场严峻的 “寒冬”。从最新公布的财报数据看，以周大福为例，截至2024年9月30日的2025财年上半年，营业额为394.08 亿港元，同比大幅下降20.4%，净利润更是暴跌44.4%。

F | 同期，六福集团实现收入54.49亿港元，同比锐减27.2%，归母净利润同比大跌53.9%，经营利润、期内利润等关键指标也呈现出超50%的下滑幅度，黄金及铂金产品销售额同比减少24.1%。这些行业头部企业业绩滑坡，与金价走势形成鲜明反差。国际黄金现货价格从今年4月约2328美元/盎司涨至9月的2634美元/盎司高位，涨幅约13%，国内足金首饰单价也纷纷突破800元/克。

G | 但高涨金价并未成为这些企业业绩增长 “助推器”，反而是“绊脚石”。

H | 在业绩压力下，不少黄金销售企业选择缩减线下门店。据天眼查数据显示，今年成立的黄金有关企业，足足有414家倒闭。其中，黄金赛道头部企业周大福，半年关闭了180家门店；周生生关闭47间门店；周六福关闭了76家。这市场里头，黄金投资和黄金饰品消费就像冰火两重天。02 金价大涨，为何金店却撑不住了？黄金饰品在金价 “高光” 时刻却 “卖不动”了。这般看似矛盾的景象背后，实则隐藏着复杂且多元的经济逻辑与市场因素。事实上，金价上涨，并不意味着所有黄金产品都会迎来“疯抢”；出于投资心理的消费者，往往会选择更保值、纯度更高的原料黄金，也就是金条。众所周知，黄金跟黄金饰品是两回事。举个例子，它们之间的关系就像是面包和面粉。企业拿着面粉加工成面包，再额外向消费者索要30%的加工费，形成品牌溢价。以前金价低的时候，黄金属于消费属性，消费者愿意付30%的溢价，把黄金做成满意的饰品。现在的黄金属于金融属性，购买黄金只是为了坐等升值再二次兜售，溢价30%的黄金饰品并不适合投资。那么，黄金企业的消费群体只剩下“刚需用户”，但如果金价实在太高，这部分刚需用户同样会难以承受。在浙江一家金店内，看着一旁的金价表格，尽管有优惠活动，王女士还是下不了手。

I | 她本来想给自己买一根10多克的金项链，作为40岁生日礼物，但对比了几款，都得1万元出头……最终还是只给女儿买了一根1000多元的“逢考必过”黄金手链。某金店老板更是坦言道：“黄金柜台前往往空无一人，即便是结婚这样的刚需场景，消费者也倾向于选择克数较少的金饰。”根据国家统计局数据，截止到2024年9月，金银珠宝类社会消费品零售总额为264亿元，同比下降7.8%；而且，这一数据已连续多月呈下滑趋势。同样，世界黄金协会发布的《2024年中国金饰零售市场洞察报告》显示，“自戴”作为金饰消费的主要场景，占比已经从39%下降到今年的27%，很多消费者可能缩减了“自戴”首饰购买等非必要消费的预算。

J | 由此可见，金价如若持续涨下去，人们对金饰的消费意愿很可能也会进一步下降。随着消费者对金店的“冷落”，或将进一步影响了黄金珠宝企业们的经营业绩。03 展望2025 ，黄金还会是牛市吗？那么问题来了？展望2025，黄金是复刻过去一年金价走势，继续走牛，或是迎来拐点？ 事实上，世界黄金协会在《2025全球年度展望》里已经放话了：前景还行，但涨势可能没那么猛了。目前，金价稳定在每盎司2600美元附近，依旧维持在历史高位。业内人士认为，从伦敦现货黄金的K线来看，过去两个月里，每当价格到了一个阶段性低点，就会出现反弹，也就是说，买盘始终存在。

K | 首先，从长周期看，黄金价格反映货币属性，锚定以美元为主的信用货币体系信誉强弱。在美债偿债能力下降、通胀压力上行、逆全球化背景下，将推动全球央行去美元化进程，进而持续支撑作为推动金价上涨的“风向标”之一——央行的购金需求。

L | 比如，去年第三季度，多国央行持续增持黄金。根据世界黄金协会的最新数据，10月份全球央行黄金净购买量达到60吨，创下2024年的单月最高值。而从中国央行角度看，中国仍有较大增储黄金储备空间。

M | 南华期货预计2025年黄金价格可能仍主要受投资需求波动主导，但央行购金将为金价带来强劲的下方支撑。

N | 其次，2025年1月20日特朗普将就职美国总统，这加剧不确定性，因其拟议的关税和保护主义政策预计将推升通胀，甚至引发贸易战。鉴于投资者将黄金作为对冲通胀的工具，在经济不确定性和价格压力加大的情况下，黄金往往表现更好。此外，包括地缘政局风险仍将为金价上涨提供阶段性避险买需支持。虽说有些地方的冲突有望缓和，可目前来看，国际格局分化得厉害，保不准全球避险资金还得接着买黄金。当然，从短期来看，金价也可能会面临回调压力，尤其是在美元强势以及特朗普主动推导地缘政治风险缓解的情况下。2025年的黄金市场，变数和机遇共存，不盲目跟风，瞅准时机，才能从这黄金盛宴里捞着好处。而对于黄金珠宝企业来说，在高金价下，首先要做的事，就是要补课，与时俱进，迎难而上，积极完成企业和产品的结构性调整。文 / 伯虎商业评论 参考来源：金晨领航：黄金暴涨下的众生相：有人日赚数百万，有人血亏上千万经济观察报：黄金还会上涨吗？｜请回答，2025第一财经：近期金价大跌！特朗普将如何“整顿”黄金市场FX678汇通财经：世界银行：预计今年贵金属价格将上涨8%，不排除更高的金价21世纪经济报道：“周大福们”正疯狂关店。